RALLY
Sports engine liveMLB model research
MODEL BENCHMARK

Supervised model tournament.

Active V1 forecasts remain stable while V2 candidates face rolling, season-by-season evaluation.

LOWEST BRIER SCOREElastic-Net Logistic
MODEL AG0

Elastic-Net Logistic

Elastic-net logistic regression

A regularized linear classifier optimized for stable weights, interpretability, and calibrated probabilities.

Permanent baselineawaiting historical training
MODEL BG0

Histogram Gradient Boosting

Histogram gradient boosting

A boosted-tree classifier designed to learn thresholds and nonlinear feature interactions.

Primary challengerawaiting historical training
MODEL CG0

Random Forest

Random forest

A bagged-tree ensemble that provides robust nonlinear estimates and model diversity.

Diversity challengerawaiting historical training
V2 CHAMPION / CHALLENGER

Chronological evaluation pipeline.

Explicit promotion only
Labeled rows—Leakage-safe replay + official locks
Rich official rows—Pitching, lineups, injuries, weather
Candidate schema—— currently meet support threshold
Active V2 champion0Staged candidates do not serve
No V2 releases have been registered.
V2.5 POINT-IN-TIME MODEL LAB

Statcast archive and matchup evaluation.

Training blocked
Pitch identities—Awaiting warehouse state
Source games—No range ingested
Eligible targets—No snapshots materialized
Latest durable job—No V2.4 backfill job
Eligible-game coverage by season95% required in every chronological season
Coverage report unavailable.
V2.5 matchup evidenceOpposing-unit interactions, pitch families, form trends, and prior venue context
Research only · no serving effect
Declared inputs—All target-specific and pregame-safe
Mapped games—— team snapshots
Complete evidence—— games
Form windows—Recent games / long-form games
Strict prior-date evidenceSource game date must be earlier than the target date. Target-game and all same-day pitches are excluded.
No ingest run yet
16 point-in-time game features declaredNo Statcast model is trained until chronological coverage passes.
PROSPECTIVE V2 TOURNAMENT

Confirmation picks made before the result.

Zero V1 ensemble effect
No releases are collecting prospective picks.Enable a validated release with the V2 shadow-enable CLI command.
V2.7 LOCKED PICKSDefinitive selections for this slate
Immutable at the pregame cutoff

No V2.7 lock exists for this slate yet. Rally will show the selected team and probability here after the official cutoff; it will never backfill a pick after first pitch.

MODEL SELECTION PIPELINE

Promotion and retirement criteria.

01Train in the past

Pregame features and expanding windows.

02Face later games

Brier, log loss, calibration, stability.

03Promote with evidence

Improvement across multiple windows.

04Evolve or archive

Bounded derivatives; preserved lineage.